Look for the Best Turns for The Right Deals


If you’re after the turn:  You only have the river left. To calculate the probability that the desired card will come out on the river you have to multiply by 2 the number of the first point.

  • And based on this, you decide whether to continue betting or fold.
  • The question is, where does that formula come from?  And the answer will be surprising.

Now we are going to analyze the two previous cases:

If you are after the turn:

We know 6 cards (the three on the flop, the one on the turn and our two cards), so there are 52-6 = 46 cards that we do not know (event A). If there are (x) cards that help us to complete a good hand, observing the formula of an event we can deduce that the probability that a card that is not worth us  to complete a good hand will come out on the river  is expressed as follows:

Then, Why does the formula say to multiply by 2, that is, use the function (2cdot x)? You will see it as soon as we draw both functions:

Poker Vera 4

As you can see, the (2cdot x) function is a reasonable approximation to the truth function, especially for small values ​​of (x), which is usually the norm, and it is much easier to remember !!

If you are after the flop:

In this case we know 5 cards (the three of the flop and the two of ours). In the deck there are 52, so we do not know 52-5 = 47 cards that can come on the turn (event A), and 47-1 = 46 cards that will come on the river (event B). Again we are going to use the formula of an event and now we are also going to use that the probability of two independent events occurring is the product of their probabilities.

If there are (x) cards that help us to complete a good hand, we can express the probability that both the turn and the river will show cards that are not worth us to complete a good hand. For 더킹카지노 this is importamt.

Therefore, the probability that in any of them a card will come out that is worth us to make a good hand is the total minus the previous one:

Remember that in this case the formula says to multiply by 4, that is, to use the function (4cdot x). The explanation is clear again if we draw both functions:

Why not blindly follow the formula

After counting this formula and explaining where it comes from, tell you that in my opinion, this calculation can mislead and mislead us. Let’s see an example:


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